Option Trade Analysis is Incorrect on VIX Options.
Summary of User’s Report
- The main problem reported by the user, Dew, is that the Trade Analyzer provides incorrect analysis for a specific options spread involving VIX puts, showing inaccurate max gain, max loss, and probability of profit.
- Fidelity representatives requested clarification on the specific tool or platform used and the steps taken to reproduce the error.
- Dew offered to send a screenshot of the issue via direct message on social media or Reddit, as private chat is not available through Discord.
Here’s the full thread
Hello!
I was looking at some short-term short volatility strategies and I noticed that the Trade Analyzer is incorrect when it is analyzing certain spreads.
I thought I should report it here. If you’d like, I can DM a screenshot of the trade since images aren’t allowed here.
The trade is:
-1 $15 Strike Put on VIX expiring Feb 21
1 $16 Strike Put on VIX expiring Feb 21.
Net Debit of $0.76.
The Trade Analyzer is reporting a max gain of $160 and a max loss of $0.
The real number should be a max loss of $0.76 and a max gain of $0.24.
The Trade Analyzer is also reporting a probability of profit of >99%.
I estimate it’s closer to 70%-80%, but definitely not 99%.
Hey there, @Dew. Thanks for stopping by, it’s great to hear from you again.
We’d be happy to take a closer look into this. First, we’ll need a little clarification. Can you let us know the specific tool or platform you’re viewing this on, as well as the steps you took to get there? We have a few different tools when it comes to trading options, and we want to ensure we’re on the same page.
We appreciate you working with us, and look forward to hearing back from you!
I was viewing the option chain on the online platform.
To get there, I went: Accounts & Trade -> Trade -> Trade Options + VIX -> Option Chain, then I clicked the boxes next to the strike prices to use the trade analyzer.
Unfortunately, I can’t replicate the error now since spreads have widened. I could DM you an image from when it occurred.
Hi, @Dew.
Since we don’t have private chat through Discord, please send us a screenshot through a direct message on either Facebook, Instagram, or X, formerly known as Twitter. You may also send us a Modmail through our subreddit, if you have a Reddit account.
Fidelity Modmail: https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=/r/fidelityinvestments
We will follow up with you on the applicable platform. 🟢
Done. Thank you!